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Winton Centre for Risk and Evidence Communication

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22 Apr
On February 20th, a group of Philip Tetlock’s superforecasters said the probability that one month later the WHO would report more than 200,000 cases of Coronavirus was 3%. They couldn't have been more wrong. Read Michael Blastland's latest blog on the topic of uncertainty.
25 Mar
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The Winton Centre and our sister centre in Berlin, the Harding Center for Risk Literacy, have worked together to put to the test a format for communicating the pros and cons of medical treatments, called a 'Fact Box'. We wanted to confirm in the most rigorous test we could imagine, that this format really was better than text - and …

24 Mar
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At the end of last week we collected data from 700 people in each of the UK and US on how they were responding to the risk of the coronavirus, and their governments’ reactions.

Over the weekend, we’ve collected the same data from more countries: Australia, Mexico, Spain, Germany and Italy (with the same caveats about the sampling — see …

23 Mar
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Anne Marthe van der Bles and others from the Winton Centre team carried out empirical work, including experiments on the BBC News website, to see how people responded to the communication of uncertainty around facts and figures. Even though people recognised that the evidence was more uncertain, it did not undermine their trust in the facts or in the communicator …

21 Mar
Risk from COVID-19

David Spiegelhalter puts the COVID-19 risk in perspective:

https://medium.com/wintoncentre/how-much-normal-risk-does-covid-represent-4539118e1196

It’s always useful to remember that we’re all going to die sometime, and the rate at which we do so is faithfully recorded in the life tables provided by the Office For National Statistics. The recent report by researchers from Imperial College London provided estimates of the age-specific risks of dying …

20 Mar
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The Winton Centre are carrying out a series of surveys in countries across the world to find out the effects of the communications around the coronavirus pandemic.

We wanted to find out how worried people were, where they were getting their trusted information from, what they thought of their governments' responses and how uncertain they felt about the situation. Our …

19 Mar

In 2016 Britain was said to have ‘had enough of experts’. Shortly after, we had Trump’s ‘alternative facts’. But with the coronavirus, there’ve been claims of an end to all that — no more ‘post-truth’ — as people clamour for reliable information. Is this the moment the experts ride back into town?

Michael Blastland is not so sure:

https://medium.com/wintoncentre/quick-thoughts-on-coronavirus-and-experts-4956b153bbf?sk=a40a93201729f33f533979d8367f0119

1 Mar
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The Winton Centre's very own podcast is now available on Apple Podcasts, Google and Spotify.