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Winton Centre for Risk and Evidence Communication


Although the Winton Centre's priorities are in the applications of knowledge in the real world, we do also publish our academic work in order to share our knowledge, data and experiences with others. Because we publish in order to maximise access to our work, all our publications are Gold Open Access (we do not publish in journals that do not offer this option), and we pre-register our hypotheses and methods wherever suitable.

All our code is published Open Source on GitHub.

Winton Centre Publications

  • Gabriel Recchia, Karin S. Moser, Alexandra L.J. Freeman (2024) What affects perceived trustworthiness of online medical information and subsequent treatment decision-making? Randomized trials on the role of uncertainty and institutional cues. Medical Decision Making Policy & Practice

  • Kerr, J., van der Bles, A.-M., Dryhurst, S., Schneider, C.R., Chopurian, V., Freeman, A.L.J., van der Linden, S. (2023) The effects of communicating uncertainty around statistics, on public trust. Royal Society Open Science.

  • Proto, R., Recchia, G., Dryhurst, S., Freeman, Alexandra L. J. (2023) Do colored cells in risk matrices affect decision-making and risk perception? Insights from randomized controlled studies. Risk Analysis.

  • Kerr, J. R., Schneider, C. R., Freeman, A. L., Marteau, T., & van der Linden, S. (2022). Transparent communication of evidence does not undermine public trust in evidence. PNAS Nexus.

  • Jackson C, Finikarides L, Freeman ALJ (2022) The adverse effects of trastuzumab-containing regimes as a therapy in breast cancer: A piggy-back systematic review and meta-analysis. PLoS ONE 17(12): e0275321.

  • Lisa-Maria Tanase John R. Kerr Alexandra L.J. Freeman Claudia R. Schneider (2022). COVID-19 risk perception and hoax beliefs in the US immediately before and after the announcement of President Trump's diagnosis. Royal Society Open Science

  • Schneider, C. R., Freeman, A.L.J., Spiegelhalter, D. and van der Linden, S. (2022). The effects of communicating scientific uncertainty on trust and decision making in a public health context. Judgment and Decision Making, 17(4), pp. 849-882. doi:

  • Thurtle, D., Jenkins, V., Freeman, A. L. J., Pearson, M., Recchia, G., Tamer, P., Leonard, K., Pharoah, P., Aning, J., Madaan, S. and Goh, C. (2021). Clinical impact of the Predict Prostate risk communication tool in men newly diagnosed with non-metastatic prostate cancer: a multi-centre randomised controlled trial. Eur. Urol. Nov;80(5):661-669.

  • Freeman, A.L.J., Parker, S., Noakes, C., Fitzgerald, S., Smyth, A., Macbeth, R., Spiegelhalter, D. and Rutter, H. (2021). Expert elicitation on the relative importance of possible SARS-CoV-2 transmission routes and the effectiveness of mitigations. BMJ open, 11(12), p.e050869. doi:

  • Rutter, H., Parker, S., Stahl-Timmins, W., Noakes, C., Smyth, A., Macbeth, R., Fitzgerald, S. and Freeman, A.L.J. (2021). Visualising SARS-CoV-2 transmission routes and mitigations. BMJ, 375. doi:

  • Schneider C. R., Freeman A. L. J., Spiegelhalter D., van der Linden S. (2021). The effects of quality of evidence communication on perception of public health information about COVID-19: Two randomised controlled trials. Plos One. 16(11): e0259048. doi:

  • Sutherland, H., Recchia, G., Dryhurst, S., & Freeman, A. L. J. (2021) How People Understand Risk Matrices, and How Matrix Design Can Improve their Use: Findings from Randomized Controlled Studies. Risk Analysis

  • Kerr, J. R., Schneider, C. R., Recchia, G., Dryhurst, S., Sahlin, U., Dufouil, C., Arwidson, P., Freeman, A. L. J., & van der Linden, S. (2021). Correlates of intended COVID-19 vaccine acceptance across time and countries: results from a series of cross-sectional surveys. BMJ Open. doi:

  • Farmer, G.D., Pearson, M., Skylark, W.J., Freeman, A.L.J., Spiegelhalter, D.J. (2021) Redevelopment of the Predict: Breast Cancer website and recommendations for developing interfaces to support decision-making. Cancer Medicine. doi:

  • Recchia, G., Schneider, C. R., Freeman, A. L. J. (2021). How do the UK public interpret COVID-19 test results? Comparing the impact of official information about results and reliability used in the UK, USA and New Zealand: a randomised controlled trial. BMJ Open, 11, e047731. doi:

  • Freeman, A. L. J., Kerr, J., Recchia, G., Schneider, C. R., Lawrence, A. C. E., Finikarides, L., Luoni, G., Dryhurst, S. and Spiegelhalter, D. (2021). Communicating personalized risks from COVID-19: guidelines from an empirical study. R. Soc. open sci.8201721201721

  • Brick, C., & Freeman, A. L. (2021). Communicating evidence in icons and summary formats for policymakers: what works?. Behavioural Public Policy, 1-29.

  • Kerr, J. R., Freeman, A. L. J., Marteau, T.M., & van der Linden, S. (2021) Effect of information about COVID-19 vaccine effectiveness and side effects on behavioural intentions: two online experiments. Vaccines 9(4).

  • Schneider, C. R., Dryhurst, S., Kerr, J., Freeman, A. L., Recchia, G., Spiegelhalter, D., & van der Linden, S. (2021). COVID-19 risk perception: a longitudinal analysis of its predictors and associations with health protective behaviours in the United Kingdom. Journal of Risk Research, 1-20.

  • Jackson, C., Freeman, A. L., Szlamka, Z., & Spiegelhalter, D. J. (2021). The adverse effects of bisphosphonates in breast cancer: A systematic review and network meta-analysis. PloS one, 16(2), e0246441.

  • Smith, G. D., & Spiegelhalter, D. (2020). Shielding from COVID-19 should be stratified by risk. British Medical Journal; 369; m2063

  • Hoffmann TC, Del Mar C, Santhirapala R & Freeman, ALJ (2020). Teaching clinicians shared decision making and risk communication online: an evaluation study. BMJ Evidence-Based Medicine

  • Dryhurst, S., Schneider, C. R., Kerr, J., Freeman, A. L. J., Recchia, G., Van der Bles, A. M., Spiegelhalter, D. & Van der Linden, S. (2020). Risk perceptions of COVID-19 around the world. Journal of Risk Research, 1-13.

  • Van der Bles, A. M., Van der Linden, S., Freeman, A. L. J., & Spiegelhalter, D. J. (2020). The effects of communicating uncertainty on public trust in facts and numbers. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, 117(14), 7672-7683.

  • Roozenbeek, J., Schneider, C. R., Dryhurst, S., Kerr, J., Freeman, A. L. J., Recchia, G., Van der Bles, A. M., & Van der Linden, S. (2020). Susceptibility to misinformation about COVID-19 around the world. Royal Society Open Science, 7(10), 201199.

  • Brick, C., McDowell, M., & Freeman, A. L. (2020). Risk communication in tables versus text: a registered report randomized trial on ‘fact boxes'. Royal Society open science, 7(3), 190876.

  • Farmer, G. D., Gray, H., Chandratillake, G., Raymond, F. L., & Freeman, A. L. (2020). Recommendations for designing genetic test reports to be understood by patients and non-specialists. European Journal of Human Genetics, 1-11.

  • Anne Marthe van der Bles, Sander van der Linden, Alexandra L. J. Freeman, James Mitchell, Ana B. Galvao, Lisa Zaval, & David J. Spiegelhalter (2019). Communicating uncertainty about facts, numbers and science. Royal Society Open Science, 6(5)

  • Brick, C., & Spiegelhalter, D. J. (2018). Winners and Losers: Communicating the Potential Impacts of Policies: Commentary on Zeller. Nicotine & Tobacco Research.

  • Brick, C., Freeman, A. L., Wooding, S., Skylark, W. J., Marteau, T. M., & Spiegelhalter, D. J. (2018). Winners and losers: communicating the potential impacts of policies. Palgrave Communications4(1), 1-13.

  • Freeman, A., Marshall, M., Treadwell, J., Spiegelhalter, D. and Rafi, I., 2017. Communicating risk in primary care: what the Academy of Medical Sciences’ report means in practice. British Journal of General Practice, 67(661): 346-347.

Preprints/in press

  • Claudia R Schneider, John R Kerr, Sarah Dryhurst, John A D Aston. Communication of Statistics and Evidence in Times of Crisis. arXiv:2304.01789

Other publications by Prof Spiegelhalter

These are not all necessarily Gold Open Access

  • Devos Y, Elliott KC, Macdonald P, McComas K, Parrino L, Vrbos D, Robinson T, Spiegelhalter D, and Gallani B.(2019) Conducting fit-for-purpose food safety risk assessments. EFSA Journal 17(S1); :e170707 DOI:0.2903/j.efsa.2019.e170707

  • Elisabeth M. Stephens, David J. Spiegelhalter, Ken Mylne, and Mark Harrison (2019) The Met Office Weather Game: investigating how different methods for presenting probabilistic weather forecasts influence decision-making. Geosci. Commun., 2, 101-116, 2019

  • Rakow T., Blackshaw E., Pagel C., Spiegelhalter D. (2018) Comparing what to what, on what scale? The impact of item comparisons and reference points in communicating risk and uncertainty. J Behav. Dec. Making, 31: 547-561.

  • Spiegelhalter, D. (2017). Trust in numbers. Journal of the Royal Statistical Society: Series A (Statistics in Society)180(4), 948-965.

  • Pagel C, Jesper E, Thomas J, Blackshaw E, Rakow T, Pearson M, Spiegelhalter D. (2017) Understanding Children's Heart Surgery Data: A Cross-Disciplinary Approach to Codevelop a Website. Ann Thorac Surg, 104: 342-352

  • Gage J and Spiegelhalter DJ (2016) Teaching Probability, Cambridge University Press; Cambridge (CUP page)

  • Spiegelhalter D (2016) How old are you, really? Communicating chronic risk through 'effective age' of your body and organs. BMC Med Inform Decis Mak263: 727-732, DOI: 10.1186/s12911-016-0342-z

  • Mamidanna R, Ni Z, Anderson O, Spiegelhalter SD, Bottle A, Aylin P, Faiz O, Hanna GB (2016) Surgeon Volume and Cancer Esophagectomy, Gastrectomy, and Pancreatectomy: A Population-based Study in England. Ann Surg263: 727-732, DOI: 10.1097/SLA.0000000000001490

  • Rhodes KM, Turner RM, White IR, Jackson D, Spiegelhalter DJ, Higgins JPT (2016) Implementing informative priors for heterogeneity in meta-analysis using meta-regression and pseudo data. Statistics in Medicine30DOI: 10.1002/sim.7090

  • Spiegelhalter DJ. (2016) David Spiegelhalter: Doesn't like Hunt's use of statistics British Medical Journal354(link)

  • Grieve R, Abrams K, Claxton K, Goldacre B, James N, Nicholl J, Parmar M, Parker C, Sekhon JS, Smeeth L, Spiegelhalter D. (2016) Cancer Drugs Fund requires further reform British Medical Journal354DOI: 10.1136/bmj.i5090