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Winton Centre for Risk and Evidence Communication


Although the Winton Centre's priorities are in the applications of knowledge in the real world, we do also publish our academic work in order to share our knowledge, data and experiences with others. Because we publish in order to maximise access to our work, all our publications are Gold Open Access (we do not publish in journals that do not offer this option), and we pre-register our hypotheses and methods wherever suitable.

All our code is published Open Source on GitHub.

Winton Centre Publications

  • Hoffmann TC, Del Mar C, Santhirapala R & Freeman, ALJ Teaching clinicians shared decision making and risk communication online: an evaluation study. BMJ Evidence-Based Medicine Published Online First: 22 September 2020.

  • Dryhurst, S., Schneider, C. R., Kerr, J., Freeman, A. L., Recchia, G., Van Der Bles, A. M., ... & van der Linden, S. (2020). Risk perceptions of COVID-19 around the world. Journal of Risk Research, 1-13.

  • Van Der Bles, A. M., van der Linden, S., Freeman, A. L., & Spiegelhalter, D. J. (2020). The effects of communicating uncertainty on public trust in facts and numbers. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, 117(14), 7672-7683.

  • Brick, C., McDowell, M., & Freeman, A. L. (2020). Risk communication in tables versus text: a registered report randomized trial on ‘fact boxes'. Royal Society open science, 7(3), 190876.

  • Farmer, G. D., Gray, H., Chandratillake, G., Raymond, F. L., & Freeman, A. L. (2020). Recommendations for designing genetic test reports to be understood by patients and non-specialists. European Journal of Human Genetics, 1-11.

  • Anne Marthe van der Bles, Sander van der Linden, Alexandra L. J. Freeman, James Mitchell, Ana B. Galvao, Lisa Zaval, & David J. Spiegelhalter (2019). Communicating uncertainty about facts, numbers and science. Royal Society Open Science, 6(5)

  • Brick, C., & Spiegelhalter, D. J. (2018). Winners and Losers: Communicating the Potential Impacts of Policies: Commentary on Zeller. Nicotine & Tobacco Research.

  • Brick, C., Freeman, A. L., Wooding, S., Skylark, W. J., Marteau, T. M., & Spiegelhalter, D. J. (2018). Winners and losers: communicating the potential impacts of policies. Palgrave Communications4(1), 1-13.

  • Freeman, A., Marshall, M., Treadwell, J., Spiegelhalter, D. and Rafi, I., 2017. Communicating risk in primary care: what the Academy of Medical Sciences’ report means in practice. British Journal of General Practice, 67(661): 346-347.

Other publications by Prof Spiegelhalter

These are not all necessarily Gold Open Access

  • Devos Y, Elliott KC, Macdonald P, McComas K, Parrino L, Vrbos D, Robinson T, Spiegelhalter D, and Gallani B.(2019) Conducting fit-for-purpose food safety risk assessments. EFSA Journal 17(S1); :e170707 DOI:0.2903/j.efsa.2019.e170707

  • Elisabeth M. Stephens, David J. Spiegelhalter, Ken Mylne, and Mark Harrison (2019) The Met Office Weather Game: investigating how different methods for presenting probabilistic weather forecasts influence decision-making. Geosci. Commun., 2, 101-116, 2019

  • Rakow T., Blackshaw E., Pagel C., Spiegelhalter D. (2018) Comparing what to what, on what scale? The impact of item comparisons and reference points in communicating risk and uncertainty. J Behav. Dec. Making, 31: 547-561.

  • Spiegelhalter, D. (2017). Trust in numbers. Journal of the Royal Statistical Society: Series A (Statistics in Society)180(4), 948-965.

  • Pagel C, Jesper E, Thomas J, Blackshaw E, Rakow T, Pearson M, Spiegelhalter D. (2017) Understanding Children's Heart Surgery Data: A Cross-Disciplinary Approach to Codevelop a Website. Ann Thorac Surg, 104: 342-352

  • Gage J and Spiegelhalter DJ (2016) Teaching Probability, Cambridge University Press; Cambridge (CUP page)

  • Spiegelhalter D (2016) How old are you, really? Communicating chronic risk through 'effective age' of your body and organs. BMC Med Inform Decis Mak263: 727-732, DOI: 10.1186/s12911-016-0342-z

  • Mamidanna R, Ni Z, Anderson O, Spiegelhalter SD, Bottle A, Aylin P, Faiz O, Hanna GB (2016) Surgeon Volume and Cancer Esophagectomy, Gastrectomy, and Pancreatectomy: A Population-based Study in England. Ann Surg263: 727-732, DOI: 10.1097/SLA.0000000000001490

  • Rhodes KM, Turner RM, White IR, Jackson D, Spiegelhalter DJ, Higgins JPT (2016) Implementing informative priors for heterogeneity in meta-analysis using meta-regression and pseudo data. Statistics in Medicine30DOI: 10.1002/sim.7090

  • Spiegelhalter DJ. (2016) David Spiegelhalter: Doesn't like Hunt's use of statistics British Medical Journal354(link)

  • Grieve R, Abrams K, Claxton K, Goldacre B, James N, Nicholl J, Parmar M, Parker C, Sekhon JS, Smeeth L, Spiegelhalter D. (2016) Cancer Drugs Fund requires further reform British Medical Journal354DOI: 10.1136/bmj.i5090